The adult social care sector in the UK is undergoing a profound transformation. It employs approximately 1.52 million people across 17,900 organisations, delivering care to over 800,000 people daily. Yet despite its scale and importance, the sector faces chronic challenges: high vacancy rates, low pay, and increasing demand from an ageing population. 

In some regions, over 70% of providers rely on internationally recruited staff to maintain service delivery. These workers have become essential to the stability and quality of care, particularly in home care and residential settings. However, recent government policy shifts—tightening visa eligibility and planning to phase out the Adult Social Care visa route by 2028—the sector is braced for both immediate disruption and long term uncertainty.

Sponsored staff have already shown their value—reducing agency reliance, improving continuity of care, and enriching workplace culture. But without sustained support, these gains could be lost.

The Data Dilemma: Local Insight is Key

Understanding the true impact of these changes requires more than national statistics. Workforce data must be analysed locally, by professionals who know what to look for, which metrics matter, and how to interpret them in context.

 Without this, we risk missing critical “cliff edges” in workforce stability—such as sudden drops in retention, rising   vacancy rates, provider closures or shifts in care quality.

Localised analysis reveals that while international recruits  often bring stability, skill, and cultural richness to care teams, the sector remains vulnerable. Many providers report high numbers of staff with less than one year in role,        suggesting onboarding challenges and potential instability. Zero-hours contracts and financial strain further complicate the picture.

The Cost of Losing International Recruits

The average cost to rehire a single care worker is now estimated at over £6,000. With around one-third of the workforce leaving annually, this contributes to a staggering £3 billion in recruitment and retention costs across the sector each year.

As visa restrictions tighten and international recruits seek more stable opportunities abroad, providers are increasingly forced to rely on agency staff to fill urgent gaps. But this comes at a premium: Agency staff can cost 30–50% more than permanent employees.

This level of spending is unsustainable for many providers—especially smaller or independent ones—putting them at risk of financial strain or even closure. Without a stable, supported workforce, the cost of care will continue to rise while quality and continuity decline.

The 5 Pillars of Workforce Resilience

Immediate support for social care providers navigating these policy changes must go beyond general advice—it requires targeted, practical resources to help navigate workforce risks and opportunities. To support providers through this transition, I've implemented a practical framework locally:

• Risk Awareness & Workforce Mapping
  Providers must understand their exposure—how reliant they are on international recruitment, and what the impact of policy changes could be. Local data analysis for the local authority is key, led by someone who knows what to look for and how to interpret it.
• Sourcing Talent
  With international recruits increasingly seeking more stable environments outside the UK, providers need guidance on alternative recruitment channels. This includes local redeployment pools, partnerships with colleges, and targeted outreach to underrepresented groups.
• Retention Strategies
  Retaining staff is more critical than ever. Providers should  focus on fair contracts, career progression, and wellbeing support. Sponsored staff often show strong retention—this success should be replicated across the board.
• Digital Innovation & Workforce Optimisation
  Technology can help reduce staffing pressures. From scheduling tools to tech-enabled care solutions, digital innovation offers ways to optimise service delivery and reduce reliance on manual labour.
• Local Authority Innovation & Support
  Councils can play a vital role by offering:
  • Workforce planning tools
  • Ethical recruitment guidance
  • Innovation funding
  • Forums for peer support & sharing

Looking Ahead: Policy, Pay, and People

The long-term resolution lies in aligning workforce strategy with inclusive policy. The DHSC workforce strategy, Fair Pay Agreements, and initiatives like Skills England aim to build a more resilient domestic workforce. This includes engaging:

• Young people not in education or employment (NEETs)
• Older workers with caring responsibilities
• People with disabilities

Campaigns like Get Britain Working must place social care at the top—recognising it not just as a job, but as a vital profession with purpose, growth, and national importance.

Turning Insight into Impact

Having worked closely with both local authorities and care providers, I’ve seen firsthand the pressure points created by workforce instability, policy shifts, and the loss of international recruits. I’ve supported organisations in navigating these challenges—helping them understand their data, assess their risks, and build practical, people-first strategies.

The biggest risk facing the sector right now isn’t just recruitment—it’s inaction. Without proactive planning, providers face rising costs, service disruption, and potential closure.

If you're a provider or commissioner looking to future-proof your workforce, I invite you to: